nothing is exploding in the car market right now but pricesOriginally Posted by Jack Daniels
nothing is exploding in the car market right now but prices
General Motors Will Launch Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks Starting in 2035
That's the date when every light-duty GM vehicle will be an EV, and then the technology will start to transfer to the heavy-duty lineup as well.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...x82qPDNQgjnSjk
What I've noticed is that solar is getting more affordable. You can buy pallets of lightly used solar panels for really cheap and LiFePO4 batteries are quite affordable.
Y’all remember when a crappy, tiny, off brand LCDHDTV cost north of $1000? Yeah, that’s how technology works.
Expect panels in 1995 were 15%, now almost 30%.. tvs have done a better job getting better.Y’all remember when a crappy, tiny, off brand LCDHDTV cost north of $1000? Yeah, that’s how technology works.
And ICE remains horribly inefficient. Not sure what the angle is complaining about Solar Panel efficiency.
I wonder how our country's aging and dilapidated electrical grid is going to handle the influx of EV's that's going to happen.
Around here we're losing our last remaining coal fired power plant, just built in 2009, because of environmental mandates. There are many other coal plants across the state, and country, that are going to be forced to shutdown just as EV's are really ramping up to the masses.
I wonder if alternative power generation sources (wind, solar, etc...) will be able to keep up with the future demand.
It just seems like a potentially bad recipe to me.
Last edited by GldRush98; 01-11-2022 at 09:02 PM.
No before we update the entire power grid, that should only take a few weeks right?
Gasoline has an energy density 100 times that of the best battery. I don't think efficiency is that much of a concernRemind me how efficient IC engines are.
Care to make a wager? Name the price, the more the betterBiden's pushing for 50% EV by 2030 and 100% by 2035. That doesn't seem unrealistic whatsoever to me. Hell, it just might happen organically with no gov't mandate.
You ever been behind a poorly running car from the 60's or early 70's? Yeah, the whole country smelled like that when I was a kid.You can thank the US government for all that clean air you breathe today.
Last edited by shuck; 01-14-2022 at 01:42 AM.
Gasoline has an energy density 100 times that of the best battery. I don't think efficiency is that much of a concern
Care to make a wager? Name the price, the more the better
Sure vehicles today make more power and trucks have come a long way as far as fuel economy but where are the breakthroughs on the vehicles designed for fuel economy?
1972 Honda Civic 27/39 MPG
2022 Honda Civic 31/40 MPG
Without the help of hybrid systems ICE engines have pretty much been stuck at 40-50 mpg max pretty much for the better part of 50 years.
On those Civics, the MPG may be similar but the cars are vastly different. The 1972 is a little minimalist deathtrap while the 2022 has just about every creature comfort you could want and is a safety features.
I would be more interested to see what an electric car would have to offer today if they had 100 years push behind them like the internal combustion engine did.
Yeah you drive the ‘72 Civic and I’ll drive the ‘22 Civic. We’ll crash them head on and the difference will be rather obvious.
I guess you missed my post above about GM already planning to do it.Gasoline has an energy density 100 times that of the best battery. I don't think efficiency is that much of a concern
Care to make a wager? Name the price, the more the better
What's a '22 weigh? Those '72's were a whopping 1500 lbs... also something like 60 hp under the hood.
Edit: 2900 lbs w/ 158 hp, so nearly twice as much car and almost three times as much power.
Last edited by ChillPhatCat; 01-17-2022 at 10:40 PM.
There are much less emissions from the 22 than from the 72, so that's a huge factor as well.
1972 Honda Civic-1500lbs
2022 Honda Civic-3015lbs
100lbs decreases your fuel economy by 1%. In 2008 a Tesla could go 244 miles, a model 3 in 2015 is estimated at 240 miles, 2021 standard model 3 is estimated at 272 miles. That is only a gain of 30 miles over 13 years.
ICE and thier transmissions have become much more efficient and pollute far less. But because of crash ratings, features and creature comforts the weight holds the mpg back.
Last edited by shuck; 01-17-2022 at 11:56 PM.
No friendly wager, I guess you don't don't believe in that "plan" much do you lol.
Last edited by shuck; 01-17-2022 at 11:48 PM.
I absolutely believe that gas engines will be nearly extinct in 10 years in new automobiles. I also know that in 10 years I really won't give a crap about a bet I made on the subject.
I am sure you believe that, but I am trying to retire a little bit earlier on your dimeI absolutely believe that gas engines will be nearly extinct in 10 years in new automobiles. I also know that in 10 years I really won't give a crap about a bet I made on the subject.
Ten years, oh hell the engineer in me knows that is impossible so if you change your mind let me know.
Manufacturers are throwing millions upon millions at it right now, I don’t doubt for a second that a majority of the fleet will be turned over to EV in 10-15 years. If anything this will drive standardization in the industry and things will be retrofitted to match that standard if they don’t comply… it’s a monumental task, but it’s not impossible.I am sure you believe that, but I am trying to retire a little bit earlier on your dime
Ten years, oh hell the engineer in me knows that is impossible so if you change your mind let me know.
Imo, within a few years, the HD market will start to keep pace with the passanger/Light duty world.
You also have to factor in how much MPG emissions kills.
I'd say, if there were NO emission regs, Honda could make a engine that easily makes 30% more power, while getting significantly better MPG.
Comparing mpg straight across the board from 72- today is one aspect out of a hundred.
I personally think ICEs have a lot of life left in them, regardless of how quickly EV is coming.
It would be interesting to see how much more efficient engines could be made if efficiency was the primary goal throwing everything else out the window. I used to think similarly but sometimes I wonder I how true that really is.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Even if they upped the efficiency 30%, you'd be throwing so much more shit into the atmosphere, it's better for the environment to get 40 mpg as-is instead of trying to pull 52 mpg with no emissions equip.
I had a 79 Monza with a 3.8l V6 in the early 80's during that gas crunch with an aftermarket fuel economy "computer". My daily drive was 25 each way, so I researched and tweaked the hell out of everything on the engine after removing the emissions crap, all while carefully recording all changes and results. Re-curved the distributor, added adjustable vacuum advance, re-jetted and did other mods to the carb, and added water injection since I was running high timing on a lean F/A ratio. The car went from a stock 24mpg to 38mpg with one long trip pulling in 42. Of course, the thing was tweaked for maximum highway mileage during perfect conditions, so it wasn't a perfect overall tune. Never had it emissions tested since it was prior to all of that. Eventually broke a piston, (it didn't damage anything else, so I just replaced it, and it was fine).
In ten years everything will be EV, impossible that can't even be argued. Our power grid can't handle the load we put on it now but if we double that load it is going to make it? Sure if people stop using thier AC and heater, but the time frame to update that infrastructure is estimated to be almost 20 years.
What about people's homes, they will need to safely be able to draw another 40-100 amps. Or people in apartments, or people without garages or people who don't park in thier garages? What about those in cold weather states? There are huge engineering, logistical and implementation issues to tackle. Can we tackle them sure but no one is. The only problems being looked at is range and affordability. Not to mention there is going to be a big portion of the general public that doesn't want them.
Last edited by shuck; 01-18-2022 at 10:08 PM.
What I’m saying is that in 10 years, the majority of new cars will be EV.
Huge difference from saying all cars will be EV. It will take decades for the internal combustion engine to fade away completely.
It won't double the load on the grid, that's just a silly suggestion. And nobody's going to be supercharging their cars at home, 40-100 Amps is far more than you need... I'd hazard a guess that even a 100A breaker isn't going to care about another 15-20A. The grid does need some help, but it's not going to come anywhere near needing to double in sized. And 90% of the public don't give an F whether their car is electric or gas or diesel or powered by hippie farts as long as it's as convenient as filling up a gas car... technology will easily get supercharging down to a 10 min or less charge in the next 10 years, I have no doubts.
I also said "a majority of the fleet".
By then they will be driving 70's cars in Cuba.
I just wanna FF 10 years to where there's a charging standard and infrastructure built up. Will also be so money having a majority of the populous having whole home power backups just sitting in their driveway.
Formula 1 cars are in the low 50% range, but they are hybrids.
I would belive that if it included plug in hybrids. Pure ev I don't see it happening nearly that soon.
A lot of coal plants slated for decommissioning in 5-10 year, are not actually going anywhere.
Eh.
I put in ~23kWh into my car on the weekdays (remember my commute is ~twice the national average). That's about what a 3 ton AC unit would use during the summer running for 9 hours.
If worse comes to worse the power company will institute time of use $ savings and I can schedule my car to charge after midnight when use is down, and/or lower my amperage so the demand isn't as peaky.
Listening to a bit on elec vehicles this morning on NPR
Apparently, Lithium battery tech is as good as it's ever going to get. Simply nothing more to be had in the way of less weight, and more energy stored.
On top of that, the price of lithium has gone up 400%, and is going higher.
That prevents any elec vehicles from being able to be produced to where they are the same price as their internal combustion counterparts. Which is where they need to be.
Basically, completely new battery tech needs to happen, and while it no doubt will, the switch from ICE to Elec may be a bit longer than anticipated.
Makes you realize that buying an elec vehicle now is a losing proposition. You'd BETTER get rid of it before the battery goes, due to replacement cost, but who would want a used elec vehicle that's close to needing a battery?
That's also not taking the completely inadequate grid.
Last edited by No F-bdy Bs; 01-26-2022 at 07:12 PM.
Any R&D in lithium at this point just for getting better discharge rates (and by extension charge rates), nobody's heavy into trying pack more energy density. And on infrastructure, manufacturer side, the focus right now is getting charge times down.
Battery manufacturers are well aware of the limits of lithium and we will see lithium phasing out sometime in the next couple decades as denser and less harmful chemistries start panning out. There's dozens of alternatives under consideration right now... both organic and inorganic, cheaper and safer replacements for the lithium itself.
Our lord and savior is having their Q4 call here @ 4:30cst
Hopefully get some timelines on the Cybertruck and other stuffs
Nobody cares. I’ll take a lucid air.
Literally nobody cares about failtruck.
Why do I get a feeling that Musk was hanging with his billionaire buddies and the Cybertruck was a dollar bet? Look at this piece of shit truck some 3rd grader sent me in a fan letter. I bet you a dollar I can sell a million of them.
At this point, that's the most likely explanation.
it is definitely wild to think that relatively soon everything will be electric.
Car manufacturers have set the wheels in motion with current R&D spending and nothing can stop the current push when 5 years from now, about 75% of new vehicle offerings will be EV. I do seeing huge resistance 5-10 years down the road when most ICE offerings have disappeared, in the form of huge drops in overall new cars sales while demand for used ICE powered vehicles will soar.
The resistance is going to come from two camps, individuals who simply do not like EV and individuals who do not see value in what will become much higher operating cost compared to ICE vehicles. It’s as plain as day, as we reach the end of this decade, our electrical power transmission system will no longer be able to keep up with the ever increasing rate of EV adoption and meet demand. Once we reach that inflection point, the price of electricity is going to sky rocket while gas prices fall substantially. I don’t see how this train wreck can be prevented.
JlawYeahOk.gif
It's completely wild that I have a supercomputer in my pocket and a watch I can make phone calls with. These things were complete and total fantasy when I was younger. Technology rolls on at an exponential rate.
Electricity won't be skyrocketing because of a 10% increase in demand.
It won't double the load, the most common EV charger is a level 2 charger that is running off 220V's that uses 30 amps. That is to charge one car, are you suggesting that no one is going to have to charge two cars or that the average American isn't going to buy the fastest charger as possible? That is ridiculous. 100 amps is all you need, sure if you don't want to run hvac and charge your car at the same time.
Since you have no doubt supercharging will be less than ten minutes, explain what technology will allow that to happen and please provide links. Also explain how that kind of power draw is going to be integrated to into our current grid.
Load share my brotato.
Running two (or more) individual circuits back to the panel is gonna be cost, space, and load prohibitive.
I'm sure a lot of 2 EV car households have even learned to just live with 1 charger and musical chairs. This is a nothing burger in regards to grid demand and household load.
Supercharging stations need their own infrastructure, each charger draws ~500kW. No house will be able to have them, average people won’t be getting anything like that… and once implemented nobody will need a crazy at home setup. You quote 30A but rarely will both cars need that level of a charge at a time. A supercharging cable carries aircraft grade coolant through the cable and connector and into a radiator to dissipate heat, so that a reasonable sized cable (~3C4AWG) can carry 500A, and the current target operating voltage for most of these is 1000V.
One example of a company that is working on developing these cables, first one I found on google talking about it: https://www.omgevcable.com/ev-charging-cables/393.html
Last edited by ChillPhatCat; 01-29-2022 at 05:11 PM.
I’ve got a chunk of one of these cables (not the company I linked) on my desk for an ongoing project… we were the first company to start certifying these cables/charger systems about 4 years ago. Can’t get into who, but the Germans are all in on this and one of those crazy American billionaires threw his hat in the ring a couple years ago… and from the chatter coming out of Korea it sounds like the Chinese aren’t the only ones in Asia eyeballing this tech.
Last edited by ChillPhatCat; 01-29-2022 at 05:18 PM.
Literally all you would need for this is a single charge-point with a dual connector. When one car finished, the software in the charger/car/whatever communicates that and routes the charge to the other car.
No need to “musical chairs”
Solar panels to a Tesla-style battery cistern/bank. Charge off of that at night, and wgaf about the electric grid. If a Ford F-150 can run a house…so can a solar battery bank. It could contribute to house electric when the battery is topped off. Basically like a hybrid car.
Last edited by Discount Dr. Burry; 01-30-2022 at 07:20 PM.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
